Olmert will be brought down by the Knesset, not the justice system, which is how it should be in a parliamentary system. Nevertheless, it is interesting to consider on what charges he'll ultimately be nailed by the prosecutors.

The three main charges that are generally mentioned are bribery, campaign finance violations, and not reporting gifts. It will be hard to nail him on any of these.

Bribery -- The prosecution will need to demonstrate that Olmert received money with the intention of providing some quid pro quo (even if no specific such qpq was contemplated). This is a matter of intention and therefore hard to prove. In the case of Talansky, specifically, I doubt Olmert is even guilty of bribery, though I'm fairly sure Talansky passed him bribes from bigger fish.

Campaign financing violations -- This is tricky. Here is the law. Allowances for receiving contributions were intended as a leniency on the gifts law, so that instances in which these allowances do not apply are meant to be handled more stringently. However, due to awkward wording in the original law, instances in which the allowances do not apply are in fact entirely exempt from the sanctions in this law. Now pay careful attention to paragraph 28. The law applies to candidates in a party that has open primaries and only in the nine months preceding elections (these conditions have since been changed).

Again, these limitations were intended as a kula: when these conditions don't hold, receiving any money was intended to be forbidden. Conveniently for Olmert, the Likud did not hold open primaries in the relevant elections, so this law is not applicable to his situation. The Gifts Law is applicable.

Failing to report gifts -- While by any reasonable interpretation of the Gifts Law, Olmert is dead in the water, it is actually the law and not Olmert that is dead. This is because in 2007 the Attorney General needed to effectively destroy the law in order to save Shimon Peres. The State Comptroller had written a scathing report showing that in 2005 Peres had accepted $320,000 from Haim Saban, Bruce Rapoport and S. Daniel Abraham, which he did not report. In order to get him off, Mazuz discovered that paragraph 2 of the Gifts Law refers to "a gift given to a public servant, as a public servant" and decided that Peres received the gifts not as a public servant, but as a symbol. (I am not making this up, I promise.) In other words, that law is dead.

Nevertheless, the prosecution has Olmert dead to rights on at least one charge. Campaign finance laws require that he file an affidavit stating what campaign contributions he received, including a statement that the provided list is complete. Since he presumably did not declare the envelopes from Talansky, he is plainly guilty of entering a false declaration.

Anyway, by the time all this plays out, we will have long forgotten the Dark Period when some trivia question named Olmert was Prime Minister.