So the early results are in and the parties that are pro-withdrawal (Kadima, Labor, Meretz) seem to have about 56 seats. That won't cut it.
I think Olmert's headed in a different direction with the coalition. He'll bring in Gimlaim, Shas, Agudah and Yisrael Beiteinu, which gives him a government. After that whoever joins will get some crumbs. To get these parties he doesn't need to deal with lots of egos; for each of them, he needs to only speak to one person: Rafi Eitan, Rav Ovadia, Rav Elyashiv (or a surrogate) and Lieberman, respectively. This makes them awfully convenient to negotiate with.
He can't get much done with this lineup but Olmert was never in it to get things done. He's in it for the game.
posted by Ben at 1:15 AM
5 Comments:
I hope you're right. From where I'm sitting, the lanscape looks pretty bleak.
For those of us who passionately oppose any more destruction of Jewish communities in the Jewish heartland of Judea/Samaria, it is important to keep an eye on the money. To destroy Gush Katif and to expel its Jewish residents, it has cost 10-11 BILLION shekels, and most of the refugees have neither received permanent housing or jobs, so the expenditures are continuing. Olmert is now talking about expelling ANOTHER 70,000. Say it won't cost 7 times as much, but just 5 times as much, so we are talking about another 50-60 BILLION shekels. Where is this money going to come from. Up until now, the Americans have refused to cough it up. Since Olmert's coalition is going to have a strong social agenda, they are going to want to increase gov't expenditures significantly. Hopefully, this, plus the fact that no one things that carrying out such an expulsion will really help Israel in any way (note the first firing of a long-range, larger payload Katyusha from Gaza yesterday), I believe that the cause of YESHA is not lost, but the people there have to organize and not let themselves be swept away like the people of Gush Katif and the foolish "leaders" of the campaign to "save" Gush Katif allowed. We all need to pray a lot, Israel is entering a very dark period.
This was the best result the "right" could have hoped for. Kadima under 30 seats, the "pure" left under 60, lots of parties in the knesset. Fractious, divided knessets with "unity" governments have always been better for YESHA than large right-wing ones. Bibi in opposition was always better than Bibi in government. Time to get out the protest squads in front of Rav Ovadia's house once again (anyone remember those from 1993?). Time to roll up the sleeves and have a fighting opposition again. The siruv p'kuda will increase this time around as Olmert does not have the "aura" of Sharon to legitimize capitulation as being "good" for the security of the country.
Ben-Chorin: I certainly hope you're right about Olmert not craving any "action". Perhaps his Austrian patrons have lost enough money on their "Gaza casino" that hasn't quite materialized... I am less sanguine: the way in which the Gaza expulsion was carried out - with the obviously exhilarated participation of the media - indicates that there was a real goal of crushing the religious-nationals economically and politically.
Bar-Kochba: It's likely that Olmert and the others have done the math. Since many leftists did not mask their desire to "teach the religious zionists a lesson" and crush them as a political force, it is entirely conceivable that they will do away with ANY compensation this time, leaving the settlers to dry on the vine - or flee Pali violence of their own accord. After all, everyone knows we all are living in villas...
The groundwork for such a move is already being laid in my own yishuv and in others, where the army is replacing its presence with a small band of local residents.
The next step is to remove the divisions that are patrolling the roads, and leave the local "militias" to fend for themselves.
One can imagine the press coverage of any engagement between settlers and Palis!
Ben-Bayit: as an American oleh, I am only now realizing the depth of Mafdalnik racism, and the extent to which many Israelis are still invested in socialist ways of thinking.
It's unfortunate because Shas and NU are natural partners - both constituencies are patriotic and yet religious/traditional.
Ben-David:
You are unfortunately correct...when the decisions were made to pull out of the security zone in Lebanon and Gush Katif, the army was ordered to stop trying to prevent attacks. A delegation of people from Gush Katif came to my town before Sharon decided to throw them out..I asked why they were always "bragging" about how many rockets had fallen on them when they should have been protesting.
They replied that they were "mamlachti" and didn't want to make noise. All this did was prove their were freiers to Sharon so he realized he could throw them out without any trouble, which is indeed what happened. If G-d forbid, Olmert decides to allow the security situation in YESHA deteriorate as a prelude to explusion, it is IMPERATIVE that there be massive protests! Losing "the sympathy of the public" is not the problem as Hanan Porat and the rest of the YESHA dinosaurs think...the public and the gov't respect STRENGTH, not grovelling.
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