Once the soldiers' votes are counted, the messy calculations begin. If you want to know how the system of seat allocation works see my post on it from back in the previous election season.

Addendum: You can get more info in Hebrew on this wacky system here.
Note that the system favors large parties (or pairs of parties with remainder agreements), so Likud/YB are well-placed to benefit. In the past, parties have even picked up two seats as a result of the remainder calculations . (For example, Likud in 2003 went up from 36 to 38.)

Update (Thursday 12:00): The final tally not counting double-sealed ballots (soldiers, diplomats, patients and prisoners) has been posted here. Right now, Lieberman is teetering between 14 and 15 seats. Likud/YB will probably have to waste their first bonus from the remainders just to get that 15th seat secured. Unfortunately, once Lieberman's 15th phantom seat is accounted for, Kadima is closer to picking up an extra seat than Likud/Lieberman.

On the other hand, the soldiers' (et al.) votes are almost finished being counted and they are running in favor of Likud over Kadima (though, not by a huge margin) and Lieberman is very strong (though, less than Kadima).