Sunday, July 16, 2006

There are exactly two issues that will determine the outcome of the war we are in. Everything else is chump change.

1. We need jet fuel from the U.S. to maintain or increase the pace of our air attacks. Our dependence on the U.S. for jet fuel is one of the main levers American presidents have used to pressure Israel. It doesn't matter what Bush or Rice say in public, it doesn't matter how many votes Israel gets in polls on major news sites. They just need to give us jet fuel. (Yes, it would slightly improve our negotiating position if FM Tzippi Livni at least pretended that we aren't desperate for the world's love. It's as if our diplomacy were being run by Janis Ian at seventeen.)

2. We are scared, and for damn good reason, to fight a ground battle. But the longer they maintain the ability to fire rockets at our cities, the more clear it becomes that air strikes alone can't do the trick. At last count they had 13,000 known rockets pointed our way (including some of higher quality than we have seen so far [Hat tip: Ben Bayit]) and they haven't yet gone through the first 1000, so exhausting their supply is probably not the way to go. If and when it becomes clear that we need to fight that battle, we can't afford to blink and we can't afford to lose.

2 Comments:

Anonymous zalman said...

OK, we fight a ground battle. Wouldn’t we have to control an overwhelmingly large area in order to secure peace? And for how long? Don’t get me wrong, I have no faith in negotiations, at least not under current conditions. But I am also scared of the ground battle that we can't afford to lose. Can we win? One of the commentators said the other night that we fight each war to delay the next one. Do you have a more optimistic scenario?

1:30 AM  
Blogger Ben Bayit said...

Thanks.

I think we will see the end of this "round" without a major ground battle. At best Nasrallah will get his 70 maidens and Israel will leave it at that (a la Yassin). There's already been a call for international troops and from news reports it it seems that Ms. Ian's ministry - as well as other higher ups in Kadima - will support this.

BTW, guess who else has to import fuel? Iran (believe it or not!!) http://www.forbes.com/global/2006/0703/020.html

1:46 PM  

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